Sunday 30 April 2017



 Jeff Bezos, December 14, 2016 (Photo by Drew Angerer)
I was wrong about Amazon. In July 2015, I predicted its shares would double by 2018. Amazon  -- in which I have no financial interest -- got there nine months ahead of schedule. Back then a share of its stock could he had for a mere $443 and as of April 28 they were worth $954 -- having hit $886 on March 31.
I think it's the world's greatest company and that its shares could keep doubling every three years.
Before getting into why, let's look at its latest financial report -- which reveals that generating more than $100 billion in annual revenue is no impediment to growing consistently at more than 20%.
Amazon's first quarter 2017 sales grew 23% to $35.7 billion -- $400 million above analyst expectations while profit popped 41% to $724 million. Amazon forecasts more to come --  operating income in the current quarter ranging from $425 million to $1.08 billion on net sales between $35.3 billion and $37.8 billion -- (analysts project sales of $36.9 billion in the current quarter), according to Bloomberg.
In my book, what makes Amazon the world's greatest company is its disciplined growth strategy that taps five dimensions of growth as follows:
  • Customers. Amazon started off selling books to consumers and now it sells many more things -- from movies to detergent -- to consumers (it had 300 million user accounts as of February 2017) and computer services to companies.
  • Geography. Amazon began in the U.S. and now has offices in 30 countries -- suggesting to me that geography offers significant growth potential. And it has enjoyed big growth in India where its Prime selection has increased "75% since in launched there in July 2016 and fulfillment capacity for sellers is up 26%," according to CNBC.
  • Products. Through internal development and acquisitions, Amazon continues to widen its product and services offerings -- it sold 368.8 million products as of December 2016.
  • Capabilities. Amazon used to operate websites but it has since gotten good at logistics -- operating warehouses with at least 45,000 robots in 20 fulfillment centers from its 2012 Kiva acquisition and delivery networks -- to fulfill orders fast at low prices.
  • Culture. Bezos's over-riding value is to keep Amazon from becoming irrelevant - what he calls Day 1. To that end, he has created a culture that attracts talented people and pushes them hard to create an ever-greater customer experience.

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