Trump's Economic Scorecard: The First 100 Days
Saturday marks President Donald Trump’s first 100 days in office. The administration has been off to a bumpy start but we've taken a look beyond the politics to shine a light on the country’s economy.
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In this second edition of “President Trump’s Economic Scorecard” we see strong gains for the stock market but average performances for jobs and GDP growth. The first edition of our scorecard, published on Inauguration Day, is here. our publicly available Google document tracks over 100 indicators to help evaluate the progress of “America Great Again.”
Lowest unemployment rate since May 2007
The Trump Rally continues
The markets are planning on Trump coming through on his GDP growth and deregulation promises. If not, then as Trump put it, “you live by the sword, you die by the sword.”
The Trump Rally continues
The markets are planning on Trump coming through on his GDP growth and deregulation promises. If not, then as Trump put it, “you live by the sword, you die by the sword.”
10-year Treasury rate ratcheted back
The 10-year Treasury yield has been on a bit of a roller coaster since Trump’s inauguration. It hit a high of 2.62% in March and fell to 2.18% in April. Trump’s view on Fed president has turned positive though the outlook is for more rate increases this year.
The 10-year Treasury yield has been on a bit of a roller coaster since Trump’s inauguration. It hit a high of 2.62% in March and fell to 2.18% in April. Trump’s view on Fed president has turned positive though the outlook is for more rate increases this year.
Lowest March quarter job growth since 2011
The economy only added 98,000 jobs in March, the fewest since May last year. For the first three months of 2017, 533,000 people have found jobs but that is the lowest March quarter total since 2011.
With the unemployment rate at low levels what people need is training for sectors that are growing vs. trying to revive declining industries.
Trump’s team is trying to dial back GDP growth promises
Meaningfully increasing GDP will take time, but it does seem like Trump is already scaling back his growth goal of 4% or more. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin talked about sustained 3% growth when he introduced Trump’s tax plan on Wednesday.
U.S. drillers are back in action
Oil has been trading in a fairly tight trading range since the inauguration. U.S. rig count has essentially doubled in the past year, which should help keep a lid on prices.
CPI above the Fed’s 2.0% objective
The Consumer Price Index hit 2.7% in February and remains above the Fed’s 2.0% target. The key question is will the Fed be more aggressive with its interest rate increases than the market assumes.
U.S. drillers are back in action
Oil has been trading in a fairly tight trading range since the inauguration. U.S. rig count has essentially doubled in the past year, which should help keep a lid on prices.
CPI above the Fed’s 2.0% objective
The Consumer Price Index hit 2.7% in February and remains above the Fed’s 2.0% target. The key question is will the Fed be more aggressive with its interest rate increases than the market assumes.
Retail is hemorrhaging jobs
Retailers are closing stores and 60,000 people have lost their jobs in the past two months. This trend should continue and Amazon isn't growing enough to make up for this.
Retailers are closing stores and 60,000 people have lost their jobs in the past two months. This trend should continue and Amazon isn't growing enough to make up for this.
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